J.P.摩根｜2024Q1亞洲市場指南（中）

全球經濟測360%40%5%20%0%0%?20%?40%??40%科技全面的非科技類科技全面的非科技類指數24%20%16%3.90.2??5.3??0.84.912%8%4%0%?4%?8%8085投資（資本形成總額）凈出口消耗4540服務制造業服務5540%40%30%30%30%20%20%0%0%?10%?10%?20%?20%?30%?40%??40%消耗50%40%30%20%0%?10%財產現金及存款股票和共同基金其他的分比*59%23%8%?20%76%25%25%20%5%4%5%5%5%3%0%2%?5%?5%?10%?15%?5%0%?20%?1%?10%?1%?10%核核中國生產者價格指數中國生產者價格指數個人抵押貸款50%40%30%20%0.080.9個人抵押貸款50%40%30%20%0.042.70.050.060.033.43.03.30%?10%?30%60%8%6%4%2%0%?2%?4%?6%33%34%4%0.020.04.20.710.653.23.00.552.46.7072.04.06.36.55.15.65.86.36.55.15.65.853.54.75.04.94.93.9?8%體積**?40%01.31.52.02.12.02.22.52.42.52.72.3年初至今年初至今9997%30%97%30%40%2021年2023年年初至今90%20%80%70%70%60%0%50%40%?10%30%20%?20%20%?30%0%0%20%7.5%6.0%5%0%4.5%5?5%?10%?15%?20%?53.0%?151.5%?25?25%?350.0%CFETS人民幣指數*106人民幣走強遠期銷售風險準備金率人民幣遠期銷售風險準備金率由0%上調至20%5.55.7人民幣利率從0%上調至20%22年9月15日：外匯存款準備金率由8%下調至6%推出CFETS指數人民幣遠期銷售風險準備金率由20%下調至0%市場化機制改革人民幣匯率人民幣走弱備金率由9%下調至8%7.1CFETS人民幣指數美元/人民幣（倒掛）20%5.9%7.6%7.0%6.0%5.0%4.0%5%3.0%0%2.0%?5%1.0%2.5%2.3%1.8%1.5%3.0%2.8%2.7%2.1%2.3%2.1%2.3%3.3%2.7%2.5%2.7%2.1%1.6%1.7%?10%投資私人消費0.0%全部的4%2%4%2%0%0%?2%?4%?6%貢獻消耗私人投資?0.50?2%?4%?8%?6%1.2%60%1.0%0.8%+1.00%***YCC*來自50%0.6%+0.50%0.4%840%0.2%+0.10%0.0%630%?0.2%?0.10%?0.20%?0.25%?0.4%420%?0.6%?0.50%?0.8%210%?1.0%NIRP**來自2016年1月?1.00%***?1.2%00%25%20%5%5%?5%21Jul21Jan22Jul22Jan23Jul23Jan24Jul24JanJan21Jul2121Jul21Jan22Jul22Jan23Jul23Jan24Jul24Jan指數服務服務英國56.0?傳奇通貨膨脹運行英國歐元區印度韓國泰國墨西哥火雞南非3.1%?3.9%??0.5%?5.6%?3.3%3.2%?0.4%?4.7%?4.3%?5.5%?8%8%6%6%4%4%2%2%0%0%?2%??2%20212020219%8%7.9%7%6%5%4%3%2%0%?1%5.5%3.1%2.4%2.4%0.0%0.2%0.0%?0.5%??0.5%2.6%2.0%3.5%2.9%3.3%2.9%3.1%3.1%6.1%4.9%3.9%3.2%2.7%5.9%5.6%4.9%5.2%?2%7%6%5%04%3%2%?500%?100?1%?150?200//；（6.0%6%5%5.0%5%4%4.0%4%3%3.0%3%2%2.0%2%1.0%0%0.0%0%?1%??1%俄羅斯總統選舉韓國立法選舉俄羅斯總統選舉韓國立法選舉G20領導人峰會南非全民選舉南非全民選舉總統和國會選舉總統初選超級星期二*總統初選行進揚八月十月行進揚八月總統和立法選舉大選和地方選舉印度一般的選舉歐洲議會選舉亞太經合組織領導人經濟周全國人民代表大會和中國人民政治協商會議協商會議20%2.110.035%0%2.1%?5%?10%?15%?20%君0040%5%30%5%20%0%?10%8%6%4%2%5?5?150%?5%?10%?15%0%?20%?0%?20%?20%經濟衰退8%6%4%2%0%0005850005失業率JOLTS*職位空缺JOLTS辭職率和工資8%3.0%7%2.8%6%2.6%864202.4%2.2%2.0%1.8%1.6%1.4%1.2%1.0%5%4%3%2%0%60%2%60%37%35%40%4%30%20%25%23%6%23%20%0%20%8%?20%?40%5%0%?60%0%9%8%7%5%4%8.2%8.2%7.7%7.1%6.4%6.4%6.0%5.0%4.9%4.0%3.0%3.2%3.7%3.7%3.2%3.1%9%8%7%5%4%6.6%5.7%6.4%6.3%6.4%6.3%6.1%5.9%5.7%5.4%5.0%3.7%3.8%3.6%3.4%3.5%3.5%3%2%0%?1%?2%3%2%0%?1%?2%9%8%7%5%4%3%第四季度至第四季度個人消費支出通脹3.84.14.14.14.12%2.5%0%2224制造業財務狀況制造業0110服務業采購經理人指數：服務業采購經理人指數：我們32.4%27.3%歐洲26.0%9.8%韓國4.2%4.0%亞太地區（日3.7%?2.6%印度?3.8%?4.5%52.1%印度23.9%我們13.7%10.1%8.3%6.4%亞太地區（日3.1%?3.7%歐洲?5.7%韓國?10.7%9.9%2.4%我們1.4%歐洲?2.3%印度?6.1%韓國?6.3%?7.6%亞太地區（日?9.1%?11.0%?18.4%19.6%我們12.0%韓國9.2%亞太地區（日7.1%6.2%2.7%1.1%歐洲0.2%印度?1.4%?15.2%54.3%韓國47.8%印度38.8%亞太地區（日37.3%32.6%30.1%28.5%歐洲26.2%24.4%我們21.8%我們?4.4%印度?7.3%?8.2%?8.4%?12.6%亞太地區（日?13.7%歐洲?14.3%?18.7%韓國?20.5%?27.6%37.7%37.2%我們31.5%歐洲24.6%23.7%20.1%亞太地區（日19.5%韓國13.1%8.8%印度7.6%韓國45.2%42.0%38.4%29.7%亞太地區（日22.8%我們18.4%印度15.9%14.9%歐洲5.9%?6.2%我們28.7%26.8%印度26.7%歐洲17.0%2.0%0.2%?1.0%亞太地區（日?2.7%韓國?7.9%?21.6%?4.1%印度?7.5%歐洲?14.5%?16.3%亞太地區（日?17.2%我們?18.1%?21.8%?26.5%韓國?28.9%?29.1%31.3%我們26.3%韓國23.6%印度21.3%20.8%歐洲20.7%亞太地區（日7.7%0.8%?10.9%?11.0%17.5%韓國15.4%印度12.0%我們11.7%歐洲11.1%8.2%亞太地區（日7.9%4.0%?4.0%?4.2%12.3%我們12.0%印度10.1%5.3%歐洲4.7%4.5%亞太地區（日4.2%韓國3.6%1.0%0.8%24.1%23.7%韓國21.9%19.7%印度19.1%亞太地區（日16.7%歐洲16.3%15.6%我們15.0%13.7%40%30%20%0%20.7%26.3%20.8%10.3%7.7%?10%?20%?30%?14.5%?16.3%?17.2%?18.1%?19.7%?40%股息率80%20%18%18%18%14%60%14%15%11%40%10%9%10%7%6%20%5%5%20%5%5%4%5%0%0%0%?20%?5%?40%?8%?10%??10%?60%?11%?11%?80%?80%亞太地區20亞太地區202122我們我們41.322.035.89.3往績市凈率4x4.03x2.438%36%34%32%標準普爾500指數估值價差30%28%26%24%22%20%4x增長對比價值評估*32材料10?1?2?3?0.8?0.6?0.4?0.200.20.40.60.880%35.9%0.8%?9.4%35.9%0.8%?9.4%40%20%0%?20%?40%?60%31.1%3.1%6.1%8.6%6.1%?6.8%11.1%0.1%13.1%3.3%25.5%14.7%2.9%17.6%17.3%17.2%17.6%17.3%?7.6%?26.3%63.5%18.8%12.3%?39.3%菲律賓泰國印度亞太地區香港韓國57.8%?45.6%57.8%?45.6%信息技術?41.9%工業50%30%10%?10%?30%?50%?70%16.3%?24.7%材料11.2%?16.1%房地產20.6%14.2%?12.5%消費者訂書釘2.3%?10.6%活力17.3%6.8%衛生保健9.3%7.6%金融45.8%46.1%45.8%37.3%17.5%15.8%17.5%溝通消費者溝通服務酌情決定的服務80%20040%1500%?40%?80%?80%2.42.82.42.8PP22.5%3.5%5.1%4.7%12.5%7.1%8.6%3.9%8.1%2.5%21.4%100.0%2022年與標準普爾500指數相關5.2%?6.3%?0.4%?4.0%?2.6%4.7%11.0%13.3%?1.0%?3.2%?4.1%?15.3%?20.2%?10.5%?20.7%?14.0%?4.0%8.4%?28.7%?8.4%?33.0%?17.2%0.81?0.300.780.730.350.050.960.599.3%?16.1%6.8%?12.5%45.8%?41.9%?24.7%?10.6%46.1%354.9%?45.6%?7.6%7.6%14.2%17.3%20.6%17.5%16.3%11.2%2.3%15.8%37.3%57.8%17.6%32.6%7.7%4.1%4.2%3.8%4.0%4.0倍4.9倍1.1%1.1%3.4倍3.2倍2.4%2.3%1.3%1.4%3.4%2.6%3.2%3.8%5.5%3.8%1.5%2.5%3.7%3.4%2.4%2.1%2.9%2.8%80%60%40%20%0%?20%0?40%?60%70%50%40%30%20%0%?10%?20%?30%0?40%0700%股票票股票600%500%400%300%6%5%200%2.9%2.9%3.7%0%4%14%15%16%17%18%19%20%21%22%?100%股息率60%50%40%30%20%0%?10%?20%?30%?40%部門重量(%)5.1100.019.75.7年30.23.25.4年2.680%60%40%40%20%0%?20%?40%4.412.98.8100.04.94.412.98.8100.04.9(%)年年年3.5倍3.0倍2.5倍5%4%3%2.0倍2%0.0x00%少于(%)40%30%20%0%?10%?20%?30%?40%部門重量(%)3.92.42.56.213.02.3100.010.98.88.628.912.6年年經濟衰退48%12.17%經濟衰退48%12.17%每股收益增長份額利潤收入分享數每股收益總額?1.9%2.9%?0.2%0.8%3.1%4.1%0.3%7.5%40%25%14%14%15%14%9%7%6%7%6%6%?3%?16%?16%?16%21%12%12%12%12%5%0%0%1%1%?14%4%收益增長基于分析師對每個歷年的一致預測。過去2013年2014年7.4%8.3%2.0%7.5%0.0%6.1%?1.4%6.1%?1.4%5.5%?1.5%5.1%?2.7%2.5%?4.5%0.7%?6.6%0.0%?9.0%?5.7%2015年5.2%2.8%1.5%1.2%0.8%0.0%?0.7%?2.6%?4.5%?14.9%2016年2017年2018年2019年2020年2021年2022年2023年17.1%15.2%1.8%14.5%9.9%5.3%1.5%13.4%9.3%美元11.2%9.3%1.0%14.4%9.7%0.0%?11.0%12.7%8.5%美元我們我們10.2%7.5%0.9%14.3%8.0%?1.0%?11.2%10.5%8.1%9.9%6.9%?0.7%13.5%7.1%?1.0%?11.7%8.5%7.8%6.1%6.8%?0.8%12.8%6.3%?1.5%?11.8%7.0%7.5%5.8%6.4%?2.1%11.3%5.9%?2.3%?12.5%5.1%7.2%1.7%5.8%?2.5%6.9%4.9%?2.4%?15.1%5.0%6.3%1.6%2.5%?3.2%6.4%3.9%?6.5%?15.8%4.8%5.7%我們我們美元1.0%2.3%?4.6%6.0%2.7%?8.7%?16.5%4.1%5.7%0.3%0.8%?6.2%2.2%0.5%?11.0%?17.2%4.0%1.4%4.6%3.1%3.1%3.0%1.9%1.4%11.3%10.1%8.7%7.6%6.8%6.4%4.8%4.8%4.7%1.2%2.0%0.5%2.0%0.5%0.1%?0.1%）（）（5%4.45.96.12.7ABSABS28%24%20%22.5%8%4%0%?4%?8%10.5%?1.3%14.6%13.0%0.8%?0.9%11.5%1.4%11.0%2.0%10.7%4.4%12.1%10.5%8.4%6.2%6.1%6.1%6.2%2.4%?0.5%??0.5%?3.7%?12%?10.6%?16%x收益率變化2)）。3%?3%業業）），3132700業業亞洲6%10%6%9%8%7%6%5%5%4%3%2%4%1%3%0%2%?1%1%0%?2%0%8810年通脹盈虧平衡30%30%最新的最新的的平均水平25%投資級132個基點20%經濟衰退5%0%?5%?10%?15%0?20%0優惠券根據**傳播全部的20%20%均2.4%**2.4%8%4%00%020%5.0倍5.55.04.54.08%6%3.56%4%4%3.4倍3.02%0%2.50%凈杠桿率**利息保障倍數***投資等級5.04.54.03.53.02.52.0年初至今0抵押貸款支持證券?2000?2000BBB?Baa3BBB?Baa2BB巴2BB巴2?8%?4%4%JACI傳播JACI05.4%3.7%?1.4%?1.5%債券?2.6%?6.6%?9.3%5.5%5.5%3.3%3.1%2.8%?0.3%?0.7%?3.2%?3.4%?4.9%?9.1%5.8%2.1%5.8%?0.8%?1.2%?2.5%?3.5%?4.6%?6.0%?8.2%2.2%5.9%?9.7%3.5%2.0%?1.0%?1.5%?2.4%?2.7%?4.7%5.7%5.1%5.7%4.4%4.2%3.7%3.1%3.1%3.0%4.8%摩根亞洲信用指數（亞洲債券）、彭博美國綜合信貸–企業投）（50%40%30%20%50%40%30%20%0%0%?10%?20%?30%?40%?10%?20%?30%?40%03426經濟衰退578912345678997年10月30日2010年7月5日2018年5月2日安然會計丑聞經濟衰退–全球金融危機希臘救助計?3.02%?1.68%?3.84%?4.92%?0.38%?4.71%?1.53%?6.66%?3.94%?4.10%?2.71%?4.42%?2.95%?3.84%?3.45%?4.18%7.52%0.62%2.87%1.34%?14.79%?4.97%5.93%2.06%3.40%12.39%?13.23%7.12%2.06%0.47%?5.93%9.05%13.84%9.20%?8.33%?21.79%0.97%12.65%10.21%0.89%19.02%1.71%?1.90%1.71%3.05%16.80%21.58%29.32%?15.91%8.99%?7.86%21.19%25.18%15.51%3.35%37.10%27.94%?5.11%16.80%13.70%9指數3.0%經濟衰退2.5%2.0%1.5%1.0%0.5%0.0%?0.5%?1.0%54332最大限度0?1?2?3?3?4?4小麥?20黃金(E)M&M(E)能源(E)能源(E)51.1%27.6%44.3%51.1%巧克力豆(E)17.1%巧克力豆(E)17.1%16.5%25.7%27.1%19.5%23.1%金(E)42.6%13.9%42.6%康德蒂。16.1%康德蒂。16.1%11.4%7.2%11.2%7.2%金(E)金(E)33.6%20.7%16.2%33.6%11.3%30.3%11.3%活力能量(E)能量(E)9.2%11.1%29.6%9.2%煤炭油鋁14.0%13.8%10.6%8.5%巧克力豆(E)巧克力豆(E)23.0%6.6%3.8%?6.5%活力10.2%8.1%6.4%5.7%10.6%19.0%7.2%16.1%銅金子活力13.4%能量(E)9.5%康德蒂。7.7%活力6.0%3.5%康德蒂。?3.1%2.0%活力?0.7%?0.7%?13.5%金(E)?14.5%活力?16.5%）（8.0%4.9%5.2%1.9%?7.7%?4.3%）（6.5%11.8%）（1.9%8.7%）（0.7%7.2%5.2%能量(E)?28.5%金(E)?7.7%?27.1%康德蒂。?7.9%康德蒂。?4.6%0.2%0.0%是布倫特原油。荷蘭天然氣是荷蘭TTF天然氣近期月度數據(NDEXEUR/mwh)。HenryHubGas是亨利中心天然氣現貨價格（美元/百萬業(E)彭博全球綜合信貸–企業能源指數（能源(FI)彭博美國綜合。信貸–企業高收益金屬和礦業指數（美國M&M(FI)彭博歐企業金屬和礦業指數（歐洲M&M(FI)摩根大通新興市場企業信貸–企業金屬和礦業指數(EMM&M(FI))。用于計算年化回報率(Ann.Ret.)的5年總回報數據和用于計算年化波動率(Ann.Vol.)的5年價格回報數據反映了?1.5%4,000?1.0%?0.5%0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3,0000?1,0003.0%?2,000；（1819；（8.4%7.2%6.4%6.1%5.7%4.3%4.3%4.2%4.1%4%3.9%3.8%3.7%3.3%3.1%2.9%2.0%亞太地區真實的真實的真實的亞太地區50%股票20%債券30%替代品40%股票30%債券30%替代品全球債券1.0全球的債券全球的全球的債券全球房地產物資產我們核心RE全球的核公平我們核心RE全球的核公平長/S短相對的價值私人的公平直接的貸款宏觀比特幣核70%股票30%債券30%股票40%債券30%替代品60%股票40%債券全球的股票美國核心RE?0.2亞太核心全球核心直接的貸款私募股權0.30.4?0.1?0.10.01.01.00.01.00.80.00.31.01.01.00.31.01.040%股票60%債券5%6%7%8%9%10%11%公平長短相對值0.